I am retired and take educated guesses on all things financial.

September 26, 2007

September 27, 2007: Fuel up..weak dollar = buying op for energy

How low can the dollar do? Investing in energy plays helps soften the fall for American investors.

Looking at the current scene, here are some good choices in the world of energy. The target price is my optimistic assumption based upon current economic conditions.

BP (BP) target 73
Royal Dutch Shell A (RDS) target price 89
ENI (E) target price 77
Sunoco (SUN) target price 82
Valero Energy (VLO) target price 81
Western Refining (WNR) target price 52
Aventine Renew. Energy (AVR) target price 16
Pacific Ethanol (PEIX) target price 15
Nova Biofuels (NBF) target price 7

European picks from an excellent source: in Euros.

Hellenic Petroleum (HEPr.AT target price 14
ERG (ERG.MI) target price 19
Motor Oil Hellas (MORr.AT) target price 23
Neste Oil (NESTV.HE) target price 31

This post is meant to compliment my last post on Alternative Energy.


September 25, 2007

September 25, 2007: Micro-focusing on alternative energy

It has been a while since I posted a complete and, as I review the scores of names, vindicated list of companies for alternative fuel concepts. Nothing on the horizon appears to stop this sector from expanding - except war or a hard global recession.

Here are a few topics and stocks for my US and world-wide readers. Those fortunate to have the recently powered-up international E-Trade trading platform may finally have a reason to use it.

A large area of investment possibility is in the Asian palm oil and palm oil processing industry - primarily in Malaysia, Indonesia and to a small degree i the Phillipines. Look for Viet Nam to make a strong bid in this sector within a few years. US soybean production is down - making this even better for palm oil producers. The best of breed are Golden Hopi Plantation (GHOP.KL), Indofood Agri Resources (IFAR.SI),Kuala Lumpur Kapong (KLKK.KL) and PT London Sumatra Indonesia (LSIP.JK)

A refined diesel engine was a hot topic at the Frankfurt, Ger. auto show. Fuel cells, and battery autos were showcased, but diesel was the clear winner. If the new generation of diesels can use biodiesel effectively, it is the winner.

India is beginning to produce effective diesel engines. The stock to play is Motor Industries Company (MICO.BO).

Reducing energy consumption is perhaps more important than idealistic technologies. The winner in the US is EnerNOC (ENOC).

In solar, First Solar(FSUR) is a clear winner to date.

I also think Brazil Ecodiesel is worth a look (ECOD3).

September 21, 2007

September 21, 2007: Aero Defense, the latest plus an REIT

Picture: for our far left friends.

Several readers e-mailed me with requests for an aero defense sector update. I checked my sources and here it is as of 2 p.m. Friday e.s.t.

The Pentagon yesterday raised its requirements for MRAP vehicles from 14,000 to 15,375.

ITT agreed to buy EDO (a recommended stock here) for $56/share.

Morocco is buying 36 LMT F-16s for $2b.

Defense Daily reports that the USAF will name the contractor for the multi-billion CSAR-X program by December.

Dan Rather sya the Boeing 787 is unsafe. Many feel that Dan Rather is unsafe - at any speed. What some do for ratings.....

Stock recommendations in the market of today:

BAE Systems (BAE)
BE Aerospace (BEAV)
CACI International (CAI)
Ceradyne, Inc. (CRDN)
DRS Technologies (CRS)
Embraer (ERJ)
Esterline Tech. (ESL)
Flour (FLR)
General Dynamics (GD)
General Electric (GE)
Goodrich (GR)
KBR, Inc. (KBR)
L-1 Identity Solutions (ID)
Precision Castparts (PCP)
Spirit Aerosystems ( SPR)
Textron (TXT)
United Technologies (UTX)

Check out Monmouth Real Estate yeilding 7.21% with long Leases to major corporate clients (MNRTA). I continue to have the inclination that the Landy family may at some point soon begin to sell off many parts of their ultra-conservatively run REIT holdings. Someone needs to extract more value from them.

September 19, 2007

September 20, 2007: Aero Defense and commercial aviation notes

Picture: Boeing flight simulator for the USAF

I have been tardy in reporting my regular news from this sector. Here is an update.

ITT beat LMT and RTN for the FAA ADS-B contract, worth $1.8B over ten years.

There is a problem with the LCS program and the LPD and T-AKEs programs, which were not approved by the Senate and House, respectively. This will need to be reconciled.

Arik Air ordered ten 737s, four 787s and one 777, worth $1.8b for Boeing.

Lufthansa is in a quandary: order the superior 787s from the United States or the the "buy one get one free" A350 Airbus. A decision will be made by December.

NOC and COGT settled the COGT 2005 AFIS lawsuit. NOC will pay COGT $25m and $15m to license AFIS for UK IDENTI. NOC will also pay $20m over five years for research and development support.

BA won a contract worth $1.1b over eight years from the Air Force for KC-135 depot maintenance. Boeing won the original 1998 contract.

My stock and sector recommendations remain the same as my last post on this subject. Fed rate cuts are not material to this sector in any significant degree.